Play-off predictions part II

Ravens at Patriots: The Ravens hate the Patriots. Hate them. It is hard to think of any other team the Ravens hate more. They hate them because of the game the Pats won in the undefeated regular season, and for the game the Pats won earlier this year. Both were close and both hinged in part on several controversial calls. This will fire the Ravens up a ton, and especially without Welker, the Pats are vulnerable against a team on a tear. What they need to do is hang in there, put together a few slow and steady drives, and calm the Ravens down. If they can hang in past that initial burst of energy, the crowd, cold, and superior coaching of the Pats should be able to wear the Ravens down.

Packers at Cardinals: Yes the Cardinals rested last week, and that in part explains the crushing defeat they suffered at the hands of the Packers, but I don't think they can turn it around in time to advance. The Packers have an excellent defense and a great quarterback. If the offensive line can give him time, and the Cardinals don't have a terrifying pass rush, Aaron Rogers can be amazing. The Cardinals offense will have to put up a lot of points to stay with the Packers, and it's unlikely Boldin will play. Also, Kurt Warner has been dropping hints about retirement, so you have to wonder how desperate he'll be for this win.

Play-off predictions part I

Jets at Bengals - It's hard to feel confident about any picks this weekend, but I just think the Jets are on a roll. Yes they may have tipped their hand against the Bengals, and yes they have a completely one-dimensional offense, but the Bengals haven't given a really dominant or impressive performance in weeks. I hate to see things end so quietly for the Bengals given how promisingly the season started and how much tragedy they've suffered, but I think they're on their way to a disappointing one-and-done afternoon.

Eagles at Cowboys - There's just no way the Cowboys beat the Eagles three times in one year. The Eagles are flashy on offense, and I do think their defense can play with more heat than they did last week. In this kind of rematch, where both teams had something to gain last week, you gotta bet against the team with the questionable coach and the history of choking in the first round.

All good things ...

So the regular season is over! Lost in the tragedy of Sunday's Patriots game and the general play-off excitement is the fact that our last full Sunday of games is now behind us, and we're staring down the barrel of that dark period other people refer to as "baseball season." (JK, love you Red Sox.)

I'll assess the play-off match-ups later in the week, but for now, let's take a look at some of the teams packing up their lockers today.



BUFFALO BILLS
My pre-season prediction: 7-9
Actual finish: 6-10
Outlook: Cautiously promising


With skin-of-their-teeth losses to the Pats, Browns, and Jags, the Bills are really about a 500 team. They have a place-holder QB playing pretty well, a lot of young talent, and the tantalizing possibility of Bill Cowher coaching them in 2010. Much as it pains me to say it, the Bills could be yet another example of an AFC East opponent refusing to remain crappy.



CAROLINA PANTHERS
My pre-season prediction: 12-4
Actual finish: 8-8
Outlook: Maybe excellent?

After last season, in which the Panthers were super dominant all year and then choked in the play-offs, we all thought this Carolina team would come out swinging in 2009. Not so much. However, after sitting Jake Delhomme's crazy interception-throwing ass DOWN, this team actually had some great games. Their defense is still excellent, their running game is strong, they have one of the most dangerous receivers in the league, and they finished well even with Matt Moore at the helm. I say they give Fox a one-year extension and go for broke in 2010.



CHICAGO BEARS
My pre-season prediction: 9-7
Actual finish: 7-9
Outlook: Uncertain

It looks like Lovie Smith will keep his job, mostly for financial reasons, and that could be the kiss of death for this team. They need someone to get in there and get a handle on Jay Cutler before he spins completely out of control. He's still got an amazing arm, tons of confidence, and piles of potential, but if someone doesn't get in there and coach him up right, he could end up being a total disaster. If Urlacher comes back strong next year and Cutler rights the ship, the Bears could be right back in contention for the NFC North. If not ...



DENVER BRONCOS
My pre-season prediction: 8-8
Actual finish: 8-8
Outlook: Terrible, but then ok

With Cutler out and Brandon Marshall probably on his way to the exit too, Josh McDaniels has certainly stuck his neck out during his short tenure as head coach in Denver. Their passing game was their only real asset two years ago, and now both the QB and the wide receiver responsible are 100% alienated from the team. After Marshall leaves, the Broncos will be in full-fledged rebuilding mode, and it could be bumpy. But McDaniels has the chops, so if they stick with him they'll get to a better, more stable place eventually.

NEW YORK GIANTS
My pre-season prediction: 12-4
Actual finish: 8-8
Outlook: Grim

It's no secret that the Giants ended up a disappointment, but what is really unfortunate is how little heart they showed down the stretch. When it came right down to it, they didn't have anywhere near enough pride to end the season gracefully without a play-off incentive, and lost their final two games by a total of 85-16. Some of the offensive struggles were likely due to Eli's persistent foot injury, but the real shock was the defense. They absolutely imploded in the second half of the season, and this is why the Giants could be in for a sorry future. Eli Manning is no Peyton, but he's serviceable when surrounded by a running game and stout defense. The Giants have a ton of incredible talent on defense, but without Spagnuolo game-planning for them and getting them on the same page, it was every ego for himself. If the Giants can't put together a play-off run with this defense, they'll have to wait until Eli retires and they get a stud QB in there, because talent-wise this is about as good as it gets.

OAKLAND RAIDERS
My pre-season prediction: 5-11
Actual finish: 5-11
Outlook: Stinky

I just don't see how this team gets substantially better with Al Davis making the decisions. Cable did seem to get the team up for big games this year, and they beat some good opponents, but they lost to some crappy ones and were just as mediocre/pathetic as I predicted. Cable could easily lose his job, but even if he does, no one established wants that gig and no young up-and-comer is given the leeway to make a substantial change. Oh also, they can't draft to save their lives and their first round draft pick QB is a mess.



SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
My pre-season prediction: 7-9
Actual finish: 8-8
Outlook: Exciting!

Though they lost steam, there was a lot of good news for 49ers fans this year. Crabtree finally signed, and not only was he good, he was ready. He could actually turn out to be a serious team-player and a huge offensive asset for San Fran. Mike Singletary is doing a great job of encouraging discipline and toughness, and with the Cardinals so incredibly unpredictable week to week, the 49ers have a definite chance at the NFC South next season.



ST LOUIS RAMS
My pre-season prediction: 2-14
Actual finish: 1-15
Outlook: Avert your eyes

Even with the #1 pick in the draft, the Rams are just sooooo far from good. They don't even try, they suck on both sides of the ball, and Steve Spagnuolo seems to be completely irrelevant in the locker room. Can I interest you in the St Louis Cardinals? They are quite good.



TENNESSEE TITANS
My pre-season prediction: 13-3
Actual finish: 8-8
Outlook: Bright

The weird thing about this season is that if someone had told me Kerry Collins would get benched and Vince Young would come in and play great, I would have been even MORE convinced of the Titans finishing with a winning record. But Alas, they lost the first 6 games of the year, for some inexplicable reason, and that is damn hard to come back from. Still, it feels like a fluke, and I see no reason why this team shouldn't go back to awesome in 2010.

Week 14 recaps

Seattle 7 at Houston 34 - Gotta give the Texans credit for this one. They did manage to shake off a tough month, cut down on mistakes, and pound the Seahawks. Kubiac is rightly criticized for some sloppy play, but he's got that Schaub-Johnson connection looking like one for the ages. They are SCARY.

Green Bay 21 at Chicago 14 - The Bears gave the Packers all they could handle, but it wasn't enough. After bursting out of the gate to an early lead, they let the Bears climb back in and had to orchestrate a 4th quarter comeback. Fortunately for the Packers' play-off hopes, Jay Cutler threw two more interceptions (for a season total of 22) and all was right with the world. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

Detroit 3 at Baltimore 48 - Believe it or not, this was the worst Lions loss since 1991. That is really saying something, because as you may have heard, the Lions have been bad for quite some time. The Ravens put a pounding on them yesterday, and at 7-6, keep their play-off hopes alive.

New Orleans 26 at Atlanta 23 - Another close call, another Saints win. Most impressive thing about this game was how hard Atlanta played without their offensive stars. The Falcons should really be a team to watch next year.

Denver 16 at Indianapolis 28 - Sigh, the rich just get richer this year don't they? The Colts pulled out to an early lead, and by the time the Broncos got the offense going it was too late. The Colts make mistakes, but never at the absolutely worst moment, and with games at Jacksonville, against the Jets, and at the Bills remaining, 16-0 is all but assured.

Miami 14 at Jacksonville 10 - Despite suffering three turnovers to the Jaguars none, the Dolphins picked up a huge win on the road yesterday. The AFC wild card picture is incredibly muddied, and Jacksonville only made it muddier by completely stalling on offense and giving up yet another 100+ yard game to Ricky Williams. Down the stretch I think the Dolphins have a lot more grit than the Jags, and I'd hate to face them in the play-offs.

Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10 - The latest poor offensive performance from the Chiefs makes even more compelling the suggestion that Charlie Weis could be headed there as offensive coordinator, even though Haley is an offensive guy. Matt Cassel had four picks, and they need to get someone in there to help him before his confidence is whittled away to nothing.

Cincinnati 10 at Minnesota 30 - Wait just one minute before taking the Vikings out of the top tier. They dominated a strong Bengals team and bounced back convincingly. I'm betting the Saints are hoping somebody else knocks these guys out before the NFC Championship game. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)

Carolina 10 at New England 20 - Wellllll do I feel better? I guess so? I mean we did win in the end, didn't we? And it didn't come down to the last few minutes. But this was not a very encouraging game after a difficult week. The offense is still struggling mightily, and aside from play-calling I'll be damned if I can figure out why. Maroney has been consistently better this season than ever before, Wes Welker is just about the best receiver in the league, and though Brady's had a few more picks than normal, he's not exactly choking. It's not all on Moss, though I have been saying for weeks that he's responsible for many of the interceptions thrown his way. I have to think he'll get his head right this week, if for no other reason than the whole league is talking smack about him today. Silver lining: the defense was actually quite stout, even when the Pats were coughing up the ball so frequently. Excellent job on that front. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

NY Jets 26 at Tampa Bay 3 - Not a lot of surprises in this game. The Bucs were terrible, the Jets defense was stout, Kellen Clemens was fine, the Jets clung to play-off hope, the Bucs did not.

St Louis 7 at Tennessee 47 - THIS one however, was pretty interesting. The Titans absolutely smacked down the Rams. They showed no signs of being discouraged after last week's loss, and were so dominant that when Vince Young left the game with a hamstring injury, Kerry Collins stepped in like he'd been starting all along and threw for 150 yards and a TD. Don't count this team out yet.

Washington 34 at Oakland 13 - I was cheering for the Redskins in this one, mostly because I just like to be right, but even I felt like the Raiders were getting shafted by the refs. There were some miserable calls against them in this game, and as the frustration mounted the Raiders came unhinged. This is an angry team that plays just well enough to cling to the barest hope of dignity, which only makes it all the more infuriating when it slips through their fingers week after week.

San Diego 20 at Dallas 17 - This game wasn't quite as close as the score. Dallas flew down the field in the final seconds to get that last 7, and had no reasonable chance of executing the on-sides kick. It is definitely time for all Cowboys fans to TOTALLY FREAK OUT, and it seems like they are. Meanwhile the Colts should be sweating the Chargers right about now. They've won a zillion games in a row, they're not afraid of anyone, they can win in hostile territory and oh yeah, they totally have the Colts number in the play-offs. Don't sleep on the Chargers. (Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

Philadelphia 45 at NY Giants 38 - What a fantastic game to watch if you didn't care who won! If you did, you might have thought "why doesn't my team play defense?" or "can my heart withstand the break-neck pace of this incredibly important game?" The Eagles only real plan on offense is to execute big plays, but it just keeps on working, so who cares?! The Giants just seem like they don't have it this year, even though they've improved since that really bad stretch in October.

Week 14 Picks

Seattle at Houston - The Texans are crumbling, but they have this game at home and the Seahawks are bad on the road. I like the Texans to right the ship, at least a little.

Green Bay at Chicago - The Packers had a big test against the Ravens last week and passed with flying colors. They can take it to the Bears today.

Detroit at Baltimore - As for the Ravens, they'll take out their frustration after last week's loss on the Lions.

New Orleans at Atlanta - If there was a chance the Falcons could knock off the Saints at home this week, it was lost when Matt Ryan and Michael Turner both got injured. With neither likely to play, I don't see the upset.

Denver at Indianapolis - However I do see the upset here. The Colts are as vulnerable as ever, although this week they started mouthing off about going undefeated, a dangerous game. The Broncos are in must-win games at this point, and I think needing it more will make the difference. Or at least I HOPE it will. I'm sick of the Colts, in case that wasn't clear.

Miami at Jacksonville - The Dolphins definitely showed guts last week, but with Ronnie Brown they are not a good enough team to win consistently. The Jaguars meanwhile, are staring at a wild card spot and know how huge this game is for them. I think they can pull it off at home.

Buffalo at Kansas City - Weirdly, this is one of the hardest games to pick this week. I do believe that the Bills are better with their new coach and adjusted game plan to get the ball to TO, but the Chiefs are slowly improving, and they are at home. I'll take the Bills but who knows.

Cincinnati at Minnesota - This should be a great game, and if last week had gone differently I'd be tempted to take the Bengals. But after getting exposed by the Cardinals I think the Vikings will play with as much intensity as they have all season, and that will be overwhelming for Cincinnati.

Carolina at New England - Ok obviously it has been a bumpy week for the Patriots. Lost in the disappointing choke last week, the locker room drama, and Brady's myriad injuries has been the fact that we always split with the Dolphins. They always steal one from us. So fine, they did it again. We still control our own destiny, now it's time this week to put our heads down and just get one win today. They can do it.

NY Jets at Tampa Bay - This should be an easy one for the Jets, perhaps even easier without Sanchez's constant attempts to give the game away.

St Louis at Tennessee - This will be a challenge for the Titans. After losing to the Colts their dreams of a miracle run to the play-offs are all but dashed. If they can't get their heads back in the right place they could definitely get upset.

Washington at Oakland - Close call here, with the Raiders playing better little by little and the Redskins coming off a heart-breaker. But the Redskins defense has been dominant lately, and that could carry the day.

San Diego at Dallas - I'm a little surprised that anyone is taking the Cowboys in this game. They proved every pundit right last week by folding the second the calendar turned to December and ended up getting swept by the Giants on the season. Now they face the Chargers, who have quietly won SEVEN games in a row.

Philadelphia at NY Giants - This is a really tough call, and should be a great game. The only real reason I can give for taking the Giants is that I don't think they've solved all of their problems just because they came up big last week. Still, neither outcome will surprise me.

Week 13 early games - preview

Philadelphia at Atlanta - At 6-5, this is a must-win game for the Falcons. Unfortunately they're without quarterback Matt Ryan and going up against the Eagles, who need the win to keep pace with the Cowboys. In what will likely be an anti-climactic subplot, this is Michael Vick's return to Atlanta. Meh.

Denver at Kansas City - The Broncos have had 10 days to prepare for this game, so have no excuse to suffer a letdown after their huge win against the Giants on Thanksgiving. Win today and they'll be in a great position to at least grab a wild card.

New Orleans at Washington - This one might be closer than you think. The Redskins defense has been smothering, and the Saints defense is missing 4 starters, not to mention the come down from the big win against the Pats. However, even a battered Saints defense will probably be too much for Jason Campbell, and Drew Brees should get enough points on the board to win.

Oakland at Pittsburgh - Lose today and the season is over for the Steelers. After last week's Roethlisberger-less heart breaker against the Ravens, the Steelers need to take it to Oakland and attempt to get some swagger back for a late season play-off push.

Houston at Jacksonville - Don't discount the upset potential in this one. The Jaguars have won several games they weren't expected to, and are right in the mix for a wild card. Houston is coming off an embarrassing choke against the Colts, and if they can't put that game behind them, the hangover could hurt them today. I'm taking them on the back of that Schaub/Johnson connection, but it's the mentality of the team that will win or lose this one.

St Louis at Chicago - The only thing that could make a bad season worse for the Bears would be to lose a December home game to the Rams. Cutler: get your act together!! Team dignity is on the line.

Detroit at Cincinnati - I think the Bengals have lost their last game of the season to an inferior opponent due to lack of mental discipline. That loss to the Raiders was eye-opening. They need to bank this win, because afterwards they go on the road against Minnesota and San Diego. Stafford has proven something about himself this season, but he's still pretty erratic.

Tennessee at Indianapolis - Ok look, obviously me picking against the Colts every week is some disturbed psychological attempt to impact the outcome of these games. I want them to lose. But every week they ALMOST do, and maybe this week, coming up against a red hot Titans team with a ton of confidence, it will finally happen. Come on Vince Young, show me something.

Tampa Bay at Carolina - Flip a coin. These are two bad teams in the basement of the NFC. I'll take the home team, but not with much confidence.

New England at Miami - Throughout most of the season I thought we would split with the Dolphins, and it could still happen that we lose this game. Playing in Miami is tough, and our defense is obviously still vulnerable to the wildcat twists and turns. However, without Ronnie Brown Belichick has been able to focus all week on getting the team ready for Ricky Williams. And we all know how infrequently the Pats lose back to back weeks. I'm taking the Pats in what has become an incredibly important game for them.

Thanksgiving Day games preview

The proudest American holiday of all, Footba- er Thanksgiving Day is upon us! Much of last year's football was TERRIBLE, but I have some hope for this year. Picks below, and have a wonderful holiday!

Green Bay at Detroit - I remain appalled that the Lions are still allowed to host a Thanksgiving game. We are all forced to watch just one game at a time on this holiest of days, and the way they gave up against the Titans last year was truly disgusting. I feel a little better about them this year because of how dreamy Matt Stafford was last week, but he's probably not going to play! I'll tell you what, if he were healthy I would definitely consider taking the Lions. The Packers are only ok, and very banged up. But without Stafford I don't think the Lions can pull off back-to-back wins.

Oakland at Dallas - I can only hope that the Cowboys continue their sloppy play this week, otherwise this won't be much of a game. The Raiders had their upset last week against the Bengals, and I don't see that happening again. I just hope they keep it close against an increasingly disgruntled Dallas offense with a gigantic chip on their collective shoulder.

NY Giants at Denver - The good news for the Broncos is that Orton is listed as probable. The bad news is that basically all of their upcoming games are must-win, and though the Giants have lost some luster, they play great on the road. I think Eli will get the passing game going against a struggling Denver defense, and Orton's decreased mobility will hamper Denver's productivity. The Broncos definitely have a chance though, if they can take last week's frustration and somehow turn it into an us-against-the-world mentality. Josh McDaniels should know exactly how that works, and if he can pull it off it could be enough to get things back on track.

Week 11 early games - review

Indianapolis 17 at Baltimore 15 - Yet again the Colts play just well enough to win. The defense allowed several long Ravens drives, but held them to field goals on all 5 scoring possessions, even with Peyton throwing 2 picks. There was nothing glamorous about this win for the Colts, but I'm guessing they really don't care, staring as they are at a 10-0 record.

Seattle 9 at Minnesota 35 - The Vikings are in a perfect position right now. With 1 loss, they're a shoe-in for the second seed in the NFC, and if the Saints lose one they could be the 1 seed. They don't have the pressure of staying undefeated hanging over them, so if they clinch their spot early and decide to rest a weary Favre, it will be an easy decision. Favre, meanwhile, is giving Manning and Brees a run for their money in the MVP chase, and is so far holding up better than anyone could have expected. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

New Orleans 38 at Tampa Bay 7 - The Bucs took a 7-0 lead! But then never scored again. The Saints avoided a potential trap-game situation and crushed the Bucs, which will hopefully render them overconfident and sloppy this coming week against the Pats? Yes?

Atlanta 31 at NY Giants 34 (OT) - Even though the Giants got the win yesterday, this cannot have been the game they hoped they'd play. Yet again they coughed up an early lead and showed a serious propensity for taking their foot off the throat of their opponents. It should not have taken overtime to beat the strong but struggling Falcons after a bye week. I really think we're seeing the loss of Spagnuolo come into effect now. The defense is not as prepared as it should be week-to-week, and they aren't staying tough for 60 minutes. It's gut-check time.

Pittsburgh 24 at Kansas City 27 (OT) - This game was an unmitigated disaster for the Steelers. They gave up a kick-off return for a touchdown again, their defense couldn't stuff the Chiefs in the second half without Polamalu, and Roethlisberger left the game in overtime with a possible concussion. As the league clamps down on concussion precautions (rightly) there is a chance he won't play this week, and with their back-up Charlie Batch about to undergo wrist surgery sidelining him for six weeks, the Steelers could be fielding Dennis Dixon in Baltimore in a must-win game. Yikes. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Cleveland 37 at Detroit 38 - What?? This was the best game of the day! At first it looked like it was Quinn-redemption day after all, with little Brady leading the Browns to a 24-3 first quarter lead. But it turned out to be Matt Stafford's day for heroics, as the rookie brought his team back in the game, then valiantly threw the go-ahead touchdown pass with what was suspected to be a broken clavicle. Even if Stafford is out for a while and this is the last win the Lions see this year, they got a glimpse of a potentially gritty future from their franchise quarterback, and it was pretty.

San Francisco 24 at Green Bay 30 - The Packers had a strong running attack and controlled the clock in this important win over the 49ers. They did suffer some serious injuries, which could be deadly down the stretch, but for now they are still in the wild-card chase.

Buffalo 15 at Jacksonville 18 - I like what the Bills interim head coach, Perry Fewell, showed in this game. The Bills defense bottled up MJD, and TO became a much larger part of the offensive scheme, catching 9 passes for 197 yards and a TD. They lost to the streaking Jaguars, who could be play-off bound, but I think Bills fans have to look at this as a step in the right direction.

Washington 6 at Dallas 7 - Well, this game was ugly, but not in the way I expected. What the hell is going on with the Cowboys offense?! They were held scoreless, at home, for 57 1/2 minutes! The Redskins have a good defense, but it's not THAT good, and they didn't even have Haynesworth! They were 3 for 11 on third down, and Romo finished with a QB rating of 69.7. Is he getting an early start on his December collapse this year? What's going on in Dallas? As for the Redskins, they missed a golden opportunity for a massive upset here, and now slink home with a record of 3-7. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Patriots 31, NY Jets 14

(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

This game was awesome! Brady got hit several times but gutted it out and made some great passes. Randy Moss was well contained by Darrelle Revis, but luckily Wes Welker was absolutely unstoppable, with 15 catches for 192 yards. UNBELIEVABLE. His little mini-me, Edelman, had a few big plays, and Maroney bounced back from a rough start to get things going as well.

The offense was significantly aided by an utterly atrocious game from Mark Sanchez. Seriously, it is beyond satisfying to watch their golden boy come crashing to earth week after week, and this week was the sweetest of all. He instantly threw a pick-six to Leigh Bodden, followed by two additional interceptions to Bodden, a fourth to Meriweather, and a fumble. His numbers on the day: 8 (EIGHT!) for 21, 136 yards, 1 TD and 4 picks. The Patriots time of possession was nearly double that of the Jets. But the Jets blocked a punt, so ... that was good.

(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

I could go on from here, but I think I'll just sum up my thoughts with a quote from the ever-wise Rex Ryan, "We got our butts kicked. New England was clearly the better team." Heh.

Week 11 games - preview

Indianapolis at Baltimore - I'd love to take the Ravens in this game, and they definitely have a shot. The Colts are not invincible, and they certainly left it all on the field last week. But the Ravens really struggled last week against the Browns. The defense played well (although they'll be without Suggs today due to Brady Quinn's chop block) but the offense could only put up 16 points against the Browns, and none in the first half. I think the Colts can out-score that.

Seattle at Minnesota - The Vikings are rolling and the Seahawks are limping. Minnesota gets ever closer to locking up a bye with each passing week.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - The Bucs almost kept the magic going last week against the Dolphins, but it ran out at the last minute. I don't think it's coming back today with the Saints in town.

Atlanta at NY Giants - This is basically a must-win game for the Giants. They've lost roughly 30 games in a row, they had a bye last week, and the Falcons are potentially one of the teams they'll be competing with for the wild card. The bye should have been enough for them to shake off their slump. The Falcons proved with their loss in Carolina that they're not really much of a serious threat, and probably don't have the upset in them today.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City - The Steelers have some frustration to take out after last week's loss to the Bengals, and the Chiefs are just the target to absorb that.

Cleveland at Detroit - Sheesh, what a meaningless toss-up. I'm taking the Browns in the hopes that Brady Quinn will seek some redemption this week, but really, flip a coin.

San Francisco at Green Bay - This could be a great game. By upsetting the Cowboys last week, the Packers kept themselves, at least technically, in the wild card mix. With a win today they'll be 6-4. The 49ers are decent, but haven't been great on the road. I think they'll make it interesting, but the Packers will prevail.

Buffalo at Jacksonville - The Bills are struggling enough to lose their head coach in the middle of the season, and I don't think his absence is gong to be enough to turn things around this year. Meanwhile the Jags are swaggering after stealing one from the Jets, and can take that swagger home this afternoon.

Washington at Dallas - The Redskins are in a lambs-to-the-slaughter situation today. They don't have Portis and may not have Haynesworth either, the Cowboys need the win, and it's in Dallas. Could get ugly.

Arizona at St Louis - I would actually feel less confident about this game if it were in Arizona, because the Cardinals love choking at home. They should be able to handle their business against the Rams.

San Diego at Denver - Well, at least this year it's happening in week 11 instead of week 17. The Broncos have lost 3 in a row and the Chargers have won 4. If the Chargers win today, they'll take the division lead, and the Broncos will have to scramble to get it back. To make matters worse, Kyle Orton may not even play, and if he does he'll have almost no mobility. I think the Chargers will be out for blood.

Cincinnati at Oakland - Weirdly, this is an important test for the Bengals. They can get up for the big games, but do they have the discipline to focus on the inferior teams too? I think they'll be fine, but I don't expect a large margin of victory.

NY Jets at New England - The rematch is upon us. Here are some reasons the Patriots have to beat the Jets: a) the Jets acted like true jerks when they upset them in week 2, b) they rarely lose two games in a row, and in this division, can't afford to start now, c) all week they've listened to vitriolic criticism about their coach, and the last time that happened, after spy gate, they seriously stepped up to the challenge, and d) the defense has something to prove both internally and externally. The Jets still have a strong defense, although it's a little banged up, but since we last played them we've been blitzed by nearly every team we've faced, and have learned to work around it. I think the Jets will bring everything, but it won't be enough.

Philadelphia at Chicago - The Eagles will be without Westbrook, but the way Cutler has been self-destructing, they should be fine anyway. There's been some talk about the Bears' persistent failure in prime time, which is probably a coincidence, but it does indicate that Cutler has not yet learned to save his best games for the most crucial moments.