Thanksgiving Day games preview

The proudest American holiday of all, Footba- er Thanksgiving Day is upon us! Much of last year's football was TERRIBLE, but I have some hope for this year. Picks below, and have a wonderful holiday!

Green Bay at Detroit - I remain appalled that the Lions are still allowed to host a Thanksgiving game. We are all forced to watch just one game at a time on this holiest of days, and the way they gave up against the Titans last year was truly disgusting. I feel a little better about them this year because of how dreamy Matt Stafford was last week, but he's probably not going to play! I'll tell you what, if he were healthy I would definitely consider taking the Lions. The Packers are only ok, and very banged up. But without Stafford I don't think the Lions can pull off back-to-back wins.

Oakland at Dallas - I can only hope that the Cowboys continue their sloppy play this week, otherwise this won't be much of a game. The Raiders had their upset last week against the Bengals, and I don't see that happening again. I just hope they keep it close against an increasingly disgruntled Dallas offense with a gigantic chip on their collective shoulder.

NY Giants at Denver - The good news for the Broncos is that Orton is listed as probable. The bad news is that basically all of their upcoming games are must-win, and though the Giants have lost some luster, they play great on the road. I think Eli will get the passing game going against a struggling Denver defense, and Orton's decreased mobility will hamper Denver's productivity. The Broncos definitely have a chance though, if they can take last week's frustration and somehow turn it into an us-against-the-world mentality. Josh McDaniels should know exactly how that works, and if he can pull it off it could be enough to get things back on track.

Week 11 early games - review

Indianapolis 17 at Baltimore 15 - Yet again the Colts play just well enough to win. The defense allowed several long Ravens drives, but held them to field goals on all 5 scoring possessions, even with Peyton throwing 2 picks. There was nothing glamorous about this win for the Colts, but I'm guessing they really don't care, staring as they are at a 10-0 record.

Seattle 9 at Minnesota 35 - The Vikings are in a perfect position right now. With 1 loss, they're a shoe-in for the second seed in the NFC, and if the Saints lose one they could be the 1 seed. They don't have the pressure of staying undefeated hanging over them, so if they clinch their spot early and decide to rest a weary Favre, it will be an easy decision. Favre, meanwhile, is giving Manning and Brees a run for their money in the MVP chase, and is so far holding up better than anyone could have expected. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

New Orleans 38 at Tampa Bay 7 - The Bucs took a 7-0 lead! But then never scored again. The Saints avoided a potential trap-game situation and crushed the Bucs, which will hopefully render them overconfident and sloppy this coming week against the Pats? Yes?

Atlanta 31 at NY Giants 34 (OT) - Even though the Giants got the win yesterday, this cannot have been the game they hoped they'd play. Yet again they coughed up an early lead and showed a serious propensity for taking their foot off the throat of their opponents. It should not have taken overtime to beat the strong but struggling Falcons after a bye week. I really think we're seeing the loss of Spagnuolo come into effect now. The defense is not as prepared as it should be week-to-week, and they aren't staying tough for 60 minutes. It's gut-check time.

Pittsburgh 24 at Kansas City 27 (OT) - This game was an unmitigated disaster for the Steelers. They gave up a kick-off return for a touchdown again, their defense couldn't stuff the Chiefs in the second half without Polamalu, and Roethlisberger left the game in overtime with a possible concussion. As the league clamps down on concussion precautions (rightly) there is a chance he won't play this week, and with their back-up Charlie Batch about to undergo wrist surgery sidelining him for six weeks, the Steelers could be fielding Dennis Dixon in Baltimore in a must-win game. Yikes. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Cleveland 37 at Detroit 38 - What?? This was the best game of the day! At first it looked like it was Quinn-redemption day after all, with little Brady leading the Browns to a 24-3 first quarter lead. But it turned out to be Matt Stafford's day for heroics, as the rookie brought his team back in the game, then valiantly threw the go-ahead touchdown pass with what was suspected to be a broken clavicle. Even if Stafford is out for a while and this is the last win the Lions see this year, they got a glimpse of a potentially gritty future from their franchise quarterback, and it was pretty.

San Francisco 24 at Green Bay 30 - The Packers had a strong running attack and controlled the clock in this important win over the 49ers. They did suffer some serious injuries, which could be deadly down the stretch, but for now they are still in the wild-card chase.

Buffalo 15 at Jacksonville 18 - I like what the Bills interim head coach, Perry Fewell, showed in this game. The Bills defense bottled up MJD, and TO became a much larger part of the offensive scheme, catching 9 passes for 197 yards and a TD. They lost to the streaking Jaguars, who could be play-off bound, but I think Bills fans have to look at this as a step in the right direction.

Washington 6 at Dallas 7 - Well, this game was ugly, but not in the way I expected. What the hell is going on with the Cowboys offense?! They were held scoreless, at home, for 57 1/2 minutes! The Redskins have a good defense, but it's not THAT good, and they didn't even have Haynesworth! They were 3 for 11 on third down, and Romo finished with a QB rating of 69.7. Is he getting an early start on his December collapse this year? What's going on in Dallas? As for the Redskins, they missed a golden opportunity for a massive upset here, and now slink home with a record of 3-7. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Patriots 31, NY Jets 14

(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

This game was awesome! Brady got hit several times but gutted it out and made some great passes. Randy Moss was well contained by Darrelle Revis, but luckily Wes Welker was absolutely unstoppable, with 15 catches for 192 yards. UNBELIEVABLE. His little mini-me, Edelman, had a few big plays, and Maroney bounced back from a rough start to get things going as well.

The offense was significantly aided by an utterly atrocious game from Mark Sanchez. Seriously, it is beyond satisfying to watch their golden boy come crashing to earth week after week, and this week was the sweetest of all. He instantly threw a pick-six to Leigh Bodden, followed by two additional interceptions to Bodden, a fourth to Meriweather, and a fumble. His numbers on the day: 8 (EIGHT!) for 21, 136 yards, 1 TD and 4 picks. The Patriots time of possession was nearly double that of the Jets. But the Jets blocked a punt, so ... that was good.

(AP Photo/Stephan Savoia)

I could go on from here, but I think I'll just sum up my thoughts with a quote from the ever-wise Rex Ryan, "We got our butts kicked. New England was clearly the better team." Heh.

Week 11 games - preview

Indianapolis at Baltimore - I'd love to take the Ravens in this game, and they definitely have a shot. The Colts are not invincible, and they certainly left it all on the field last week. But the Ravens really struggled last week against the Browns. The defense played well (although they'll be without Suggs today due to Brady Quinn's chop block) but the offense could only put up 16 points against the Browns, and none in the first half. I think the Colts can out-score that.

Seattle at Minnesota - The Vikings are rolling and the Seahawks are limping. Minnesota gets ever closer to locking up a bye with each passing week.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay - The Bucs almost kept the magic going last week against the Dolphins, but it ran out at the last minute. I don't think it's coming back today with the Saints in town.

Atlanta at NY Giants - This is basically a must-win game for the Giants. They've lost roughly 30 games in a row, they had a bye last week, and the Falcons are potentially one of the teams they'll be competing with for the wild card. The bye should have been enough for them to shake off their slump. The Falcons proved with their loss in Carolina that they're not really much of a serious threat, and probably don't have the upset in them today.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City - The Steelers have some frustration to take out after last week's loss to the Bengals, and the Chiefs are just the target to absorb that.

Cleveland at Detroit - Sheesh, what a meaningless toss-up. I'm taking the Browns in the hopes that Brady Quinn will seek some redemption this week, but really, flip a coin.

San Francisco at Green Bay - This could be a great game. By upsetting the Cowboys last week, the Packers kept themselves, at least technically, in the wild card mix. With a win today they'll be 6-4. The 49ers are decent, but haven't been great on the road. I think they'll make it interesting, but the Packers will prevail.

Buffalo at Jacksonville - The Bills are struggling enough to lose their head coach in the middle of the season, and I don't think his absence is gong to be enough to turn things around this year. Meanwhile the Jags are swaggering after stealing one from the Jets, and can take that swagger home this afternoon.

Washington at Dallas - The Redskins are in a lambs-to-the-slaughter situation today. They don't have Portis and may not have Haynesworth either, the Cowboys need the win, and it's in Dallas. Could get ugly.

Arizona at St Louis - I would actually feel less confident about this game if it were in Arizona, because the Cardinals love choking at home. They should be able to handle their business against the Rams.

San Diego at Denver - Well, at least this year it's happening in week 11 instead of week 17. The Broncos have lost 3 in a row and the Chargers have won 4. If the Chargers win today, they'll take the division lead, and the Broncos will have to scramble to get it back. To make matters worse, Kyle Orton may not even play, and if he does he'll have almost no mobility. I think the Chargers will be out for blood.

Cincinnati at Oakland - Weirdly, this is an important test for the Bengals. They can get up for the big games, but do they have the discipline to focus on the inferior teams too? I think they'll be fine, but I don't expect a large margin of victory.

NY Jets at New England - The rematch is upon us. Here are some reasons the Patriots have to beat the Jets: a) the Jets acted like true jerks when they upset them in week 2, b) they rarely lose two games in a row, and in this division, can't afford to start now, c) all week they've listened to vitriolic criticism about their coach, and the last time that happened, after spy gate, they seriously stepped up to the challenge, and d) the defense has something to prove both internally and externally. The Jets still have a strong defense, although it's a little banged up, but since we last played them we've been blitzed by nearly every team we've faced, and have learned to work around it. I think the Jets will bring everything, but it won't be enough.

Philadelphia at Chicago - The Eagles will be without Westbrook, but the way Cutler has been self-destructing, they should be fine anyway. There's been some talk about the Bears' persistent failure in prime time, which is probably a coincidence, but it does indicate that Cutler has not yet learned to save his best games for the most crucial moments.

Dolphins at Panthers

This could be an interesting game, but I think it will be a tough one for the Dolphins to win. Obviously their offense will be hurting without Ronnie Brown, who is done for the year. They still have some wildcat options, but not as many, and Chad Henne is not ready to be relied upon just yet. The Panthers, on the other hand, put together a big win against the Falcons lat week, and are playing more like the talented team we saw last season than the woeful losers of earlier this year. I like the Panthers at home.

Update: The Dolphins won, 24-17, and there was no excuse for this loss on behalf of the Panthers. Though they had a chance to tie it with a hail mary on the final play, the offense sputtered. In one redzone series, two different wide receivers dropped passes that hit them in the hands. The communication between Delhomme and his receivers is appalling. The defense should be even more ashamed. With Ronnie Brown injured, the wildcat was going to be very limited, and Chad Henne is inherently so. That leaves them with one major weapon on offense, and that's Ricky Williams. Sure enough, the Panthers defense went after the run, putting 9 in the box, and STILL couldn't stop him. He's good, but he's not Adrian Peterson, and yet he ended up with 119 yards and 2 TDs. It's time for some serious reflection in Carolina.

Colts 35, Patriots 34 (God I can barely type it)

(AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Obviously Belichick is getting a ton of heat for going for it on 4th and about 2 from his own 30 with a 6-point lead and about 2 minutes left. And OBVIOUSLY I get why conventional wisdom says to punt. But here's what: in my apartment, 100% of the people watching the game knew, KNEW the Colts were going to get a touchdown if they got the ball back. Sometimes the game just changes and you know what's coming. The Pats defense is always vulnerable against the hurry-up, but Peyton's special hurry-up, needing to go the length of the field and hauling it with precision, I have to say I think there was no chance we were stopping them in that situation, in their dome, up by 6. Their previous scoring drive was what, about 90 seconds? Belichick knew our only hope was to retain possession. With the game on the line, you put the ball in the hands of your best player, and that's Tom Brady. He threw it to a sure-fire target when you need a first down, Kevin Faulk (who had an incredible game, by the way) and he very nearly made it. The real mistake at the end of the game was not immediately letting Indy into the endzone and trying a 1-minute touchdown drive.

This game was lost on three previous offensive possessions, proving once again that even when the Pats offense is firing on all cylinders, redzone production remains a key issue. Brady's pick in the endzone, Maroney's fumble in the endzone, settling for a fieldgoal off of that Manning TD in the 4th quarter - any ONE of those plays goes the other way and we win. That's where we lost this game. Our defense was gassed, injured, and unable to substitute. We needed the offense to come up with one more big play, and they didn't.

The good news is, for the most part the Patriots played great, and I'd take them again against the Colts in a heartbeat. I think we're a better team, and I look forward to facing them in the play-offs.

Look I'm not saying I'm not heartbroken, I AM. I'm just saying that was some of the best football the Pats have played all year, and this loss is not the end of the world. It could be worse. We could have lost at home. To the Jaguars.

Week 10 early games - preview

Atlanta at Carolina - This is a big week in the league, because there are a ton of games with upset potential. If those upsets occur, everything will contract in terms of the standings and play-off picture. But if they don't, things will look increasingly clear. This is one such game. The Falcons have played well, losing only to the Saints, Patriots, and Cowboys, all on the road. The Panthers are certainly not in the caliber of those teams, and I think the Falcons will win, but the Panthers are one of a few teams this season that are consistently under-performing. Teams like that still have the talent to surprise you any given Sunday, and this home game with a division rival coming in could be just such an opportunity. If the Falcons can win, they'll tighten their grip on a potential NFC wild card.

Denver at Washington - This has got to be the week the Broncos get things back on track. There's really no shame in losing to the Ravens and the Steelers, and yet the two-game skid has sparked a mass exodus from their bandwagon. With the Chargers playing well, they have to get their swagger back against a pathetic Redskins squad.

Buffalo at Tennessee - This is a risky pick, I admit. My reasons for taking the Bills are: they are coming off of their bye week, they're getting Trent Edwards back, and they have a newly pissed-off TO ready to make a big play. I think they'll have learned their lesson from the first half of the season and will take some chances down field against a porous Titans secondary. As for the Titans, it's good that they've been playing better but this idea that Vince Young solved their problem is WRONG. Kerry Collins was not the weak link, and Young has not been invincible. This is a right-place, right-time situation for Young, and I don't think it will last out the season, even if he finds success with them in the future.

Detroit at Minnesota - It's not ideal for the Vikings to have a bye week to prepare for the Detroit Lions. But what are you gonna do? This can be the first step in their second-half bid for the #1 seed in the NFC.

Jacksonville at NY Jets - I think the Jets are going to CRUSH the Jaguars in the Meadowlands today. They have been just terrible slumping into the bye, losing horribly to the Bills and Dolphins. But as we saw against the Raiders, when they get embarrassed they pick on the closest weakling they can find. The Jaguars are about to get bullied.

New Orleans at St Louis - What can I say about this game? The Rams are arguably the worst team in the league and the Saints are the arguably the best? The Saints have struggled early in a few games recently, but this one looks to be an old-fashioned blow-out.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh - If you can have a must-win game in week 10, this is it for the Steelers. They're tied with the Bengals for the division, but currently lose the tie-breaker to them. They have to even the score by splitting the series with the Bengals, or else they will have to start coming to grips with the wild card, which is just a tougher road than they want to repeat their Superbowl victory. The Bengals will bring everything they've got, but it just seems so unlikely that they can win all four games against the Steelers and Ravens.

Tampa Bay at Miami - The Dolphins better watch out for this game. They played two emotional games on the road against the Jets (win) and Pats (loss). Now that they're coming home, they have to be very careful not to feel let down and lose to a charged-up Bucs team that took down the Packers last week. One interesting twist: Sparano has benched Joey Porter this week, for reasons unknown. Has his all-bark no-bite routine soured at last?

Bears at 49ers

This is the first week of Thursday night games on the NFL network. I cannot get the NFL network (don't get me started) and so will not SEE the game, but I will take the 49ers over the Bears. Both teams have lost several key games in a row and fallen basically out of real play-off contention. Both are due for redemption, but only one can get it tonight. I'll take the 49ers at home, but I do think the Bears will give them a fight.

UPDATE:

So the 49ers won 10-6, though they did not cover themselves in glory in the process. Fortunately for them, the true goat of this one was Jay Cutler, who threw 5 picks. FIVE. Five. He's more or less having the worst season of any Bears QB in the last 40 years, and this is not a team known for their brilliance at that position. He's thrown the most picks of any QB in the league (17), more than Matt Stafford (12) and Jake Delhomme (13). But he did get a contract extension from the Bears, so at least his job is safe. Sheesh.

Week 9 late games - preview

Carolina at New Orleans - The Panthers are getting a little swagger back, but not enough to upset the mighty Saints in the Superdome.

Detroit at Seattle - Seattle is so banged up, they've got to be relieved to host the Lions this week. They need to keep a close eye on these games against inferior teams, because in the NFC West you never know when the division leaders could choke away a few, and if you take care of the simpler games you could end up in a surprisingly good position to threaten in the division.

San Diego at New York Giants - Today is the day the Giants end their skid. They're back home, and though they're playing a formidable opponent, they'll be very eager to prove that last week's embarrassment was an anomaly. If they can dominate early, they might be able to convince the Chargers to pack it in.

Tennessee at San Francisco - Believe it or not, this is not a sign of disrespect to the 49ers, who I think are much improved. Nor is it a sign of respect for Vince Young, on whom the jury is still out. But the Titans are not nearly as bad a team as their record indicates, and I think they have righted the ship a little bit. They're starting to get their confidence back, and if they can contain Gore they'll give themselves a great chance to win.

Dallas at Philadelphia - In the storyline of the NFC East, this game will be a major plot point. The Eagles played amazingly well last week against the Giants, and Romo is due for a 3-pick game. I like the Eagles in what should be a pretty high-scoring, hard-fought Sunday night affair.

Pittsburgh at Denver - Regardless of the Broncos' lackluster performance last week against the Ravens, you have to pick the Steelers coming off their bye nomatter what. They're rested, they've got a strong game plan in place, and they'll have an even healthier Polamalu to harass Orton. I think Roethlisberger will come out slinging the ball, because the Broncos proved last week that they are no good playing from a big hole.

Week 9 early games - preview

Washington at Atlanta - The Falcons were pretty impressive in New Orleans last week, and after several difficult games finally get to come home to host the Redskins. The Redskins really don't seem to be getting any better, and there was quite a bit of public drama over the bye-week with Snyder apologizing to fans and then taking flack for apologizing ... really just a lot of distraction that didn't have much to do with improving the team. The Falcons should be able to handle the Redskins without too much trouble.

Houston at Indianapolis - I don't expect this to be a blow-out. The Colts are suffering from a slew of injuries, and the offense struggled against the 49ers. Meanwhile the Texans are in a good place and have an extremely potent offense. If this game were in Houston I'd be tempted to pick the upset, and won't be shocked if it happens even in Indy.

Kansas City at Jacksonville - The Jags bore the brunt of the Titans getting their act together last week, but now they can get back on track with the Chiefs coming to town. The Chiefs picked Chris Chambers up off of waivers this week, so if he plays that will be one more weapon for Cassel to throw the ball to while running for his life behind that anemic offensive line. I like Jacksonville but really, this game doesn't matter much.

Miami at New England - No one in the league should ever assume they have the Dolphins figured out. They're not a great team, but they are king-killers, and right now in the AFC East the Patriots are king. The Pats are usually extremely effective coming off the bye, and they are at home, but they'll have to play mistake-free ball because the Dolphins WILL exploit any turnovers or penalties. I don't expect a blow-out but I think the Pats can handle their business today.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay - The Packers lost a heart-breaker last week against Favre and better snap right out of it because the Bucs are for sure getting nervous about a possible 0-16 season. They don't have unlimited opportunities, and will play the Packers hard today.

Baltimore at Cincinnati - The Ravens played such inspired football last week, I think they can keep the momentum going. This is a hard game to pick because the Bengals have played well and they are at home against a division rival. If the Ravens defense can pressure Palmer and Flacco can play his game, the Ravens can win.

Arizona at Chicago - There's no way to feel good about this pick, either way. Both teams are incredibly unpredictable. As we saw last week, when Warner has a bad day it can get ugly. But the same is true of Cutler. I think the Cardinals will rebound, and they have been playing well on the road, so with zero confidence I pick Arizona. Sigh.